如何看待关税和股市大跌？股神巴菲特这样说（转载）-en
The U.S. imposed 104% tariffs on China; a senior reposted this piece. I’m mirroring it here for my own study only.
Original (Chinese): 如何看待關稅和股市大跌？股神巴菲特這樣說
〔Finance / wire〕U.S. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs rattled global markets. As one of history’s best-known investors, Warren Buffett’s views draw constant attention. Foreign media compiled his past remarks and found he has spoken repeatedly on tariffs and stock declines; understanding his lens, the reporting suggests, may help investors navigate volatile markets.
CNBC notes Buffett’s latest public comments on tariffs came in early March in a CBS interview with Norah O’Donnell. He said tariffs tend to push prices higher and that “over time, tariffs evolve into a tax on goods.” He even joked: “The tooth fairy isn’t paying for that!”
The piece argues Buffett likely saw what was coming—first inflation. Asked in 2018 about Trump’s initially milder tariffs, he said duties on aluminum and steel, among others, had already raised costs for some subsidiaries. Inflation signs appeared before the new round of tariffs, but he said the tariff situation would worsen inflation.
Another risk he worried about is a trade war—tit-for-tat hikes between the U.S. and partners that could drag on global growth. In the March interview he even said tariffs are, in a sense, an act of war.
In 2019, as U.S.–China trade tension rose, he was blunter on CNBC: “If we really start a trade war, that’s bad for everyone, because the world economy is interconnected.”
After Trump’s latest tariff round, the S&P 500 fell though it had not yet entered a bear market (typically a 20%+ drop from a recent high). Analysts said a real bear could follow if investors fear a trade war might trigger global recession.
This isn’t Buffett’s first global downturn. In 2008, as the financial crisis drove a bear market, he published a New York Times op-ed saying: “The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. What’s more, these problems are leading to a vicious cycle and have begun to spill into the real economy” and that in the short term unemployment would rise, business would stall, and headlines would only get scarier.
He continued: “So … I’ve been buying American stocks.”
He admitted he couldn’t predict the market’s next move—in fact, after his October 2008 piece the S&P kept falling for about five more months before bottoming.
As he often stresses, businesses as a whole keep innovating and, over the long run, improve earnings, which supports rising equity prices. In 2008 he noted many investors were unwilling to put capital at risk.
He argued worrying about the long-term prosperity of solid businesses is pointless: “Those businesses will indeed see ups and downs in profits, as in the past. But in 5, 10, or 20 years, most large companies will still hit new profit highs.”
He prefers buying when stocks are relatively cheap so long-term returns are higher. In 2008 he wrote: “In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a discount.”